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Course Description

This course explains how numerical estimates can be made of the frequency of accidents and the probabilities of the events that contribute to them. The propagation of uncertainties in input data through the analyses is explained. Sensitivities of the evaluations to the input data are described. Ways in which the data developed are used in decision making are described.

Workshop sessions are conducted as an integral part of this course.

Target Audience

Process safety personnel who need to understand how to evaluate the frequencies of accidents and the probabilities of events that contribute to them.


A degree in an engineering or scientific discipline is desirable for course attendees. Mathematical skills in probability and statistics are useful. Attendees should bring a scientific calculator to the course.

Course Contents

  • Overview
    • Objectives
    • Benefits
    • Uses
    • Definition of Terms
    • Limitations
  • Use of Historical Data
  • Fault Tree Analysis
  • Quantification of Fault Trees
  • Dependent Failure Modeling
  • Pitfalls of Fault Tree Analysis
  • Event Tree Modeling
  • Failure Rate Data
  • Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis
  • Use of Probabilities and Frequencies in Decision Making

Duration / CEUs

  • One day
  • 0.7 CEUs or 7 PDHs awarded

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