Consulting

Probability Modeling

Companies are sometimes faced with the possibility of catastrophic accident consequences and need to assess their likelihood to determine what remediation may be necessary. In such cases, the accident likelihoods are usually very low and must be determined by combining the probabilities of the events that make up the accident scenario using probability modeling. Event probabilities and frequencies are also needed as input to quantitative risk analysis and reliability studies.

Services Offered

Primatech assesses the reliability of process systems and the likelihood of process incidents for clients using modeling techniques such as fault tree and event tree analysis.

Primatech uses both historical incident data and failure rate data to quantify fault and event trees and evaluate incident probabilities. Studies may involve dependent failure analysis to account for common cause failures and human reliability analysis to quantify human error probabilities. We also perform uncertainty analysis to explore the effects of data uncertainties on the modeling results. We perform sensitivity analysis to identify the most important contributors.

Primatech has available compilations of failure rate data for use in the analyses.

Primatech offers the training course

• Probability and Frequency Analysis - 1 day